Let me first say, things in publishing are not predictable. Just when we think something is going to be "hot" and a new trend, it disappears just as fast. Still, there are a lot of things we can look at with the current books being published that might give us an idea of what might be to come.
Where will contemporary be? We saw a huge push of contemporary rom-cons this last year. It seemed that we couldn't walk to the romance section and not see another one of those cartoon covers about couples in "funny" situations. I put the word funny in quotes for a reason. Those of you reading these stories have probably noticed the same thing. Remember the movie Groundhog Day? Yep! The stories were not that different from each other. There were only so many of those awkward relationships that could be played out. I met with an author at a conference in November and she said pretty much the same things. She said that one of the authors she read, each new book was pretty much predictable.
So, where will contemporary projects go? I think we are going to start moving to projects that are a bit more serious. Essentially, take the tone of women's fiction and write a contemporary. Now, don't misinterpret this. I am not talking about a drama overload. We aren't talking about stories where the characters are facing divorce, illness, drugs and death. I personally think we are going to see more stories that have a real person feel to them. (And no, these are not fictionalized stories of real people).
How about historical romance? Thank you Julia Quinn for turning people on to historical romance. Unfortunately, authors just dove all over this and swamped the market. Regency will still be strong. Thanks to Gilded Age, stories between these to periods will still be out there. These authors have tried to tap into the rom-con approach, but like the contemporary projects, these have sort of run their course with innovative plot lines.
So should I write historical Like I have always said, write what you know and what you want to write. Don't jump into some era you don't understand. I do think we might see some stories moving into more contemporary times. WWII stories (without the war) I believe might do well. It will be limited but I do think authors might be able to do something about characters not involved with the war, but being impacted by the war. We'll have to wait and see.
Demons, dragons, and paranormal, oh my... This genre has a following that is pretty dedicated. I don't see it going off the charts and will continue. I do see more dystopian projects. Sarah J. Maas has pretty much locked into the dragon scene, but I do see opportunities. If you write this, know your market and know what makes your projects unique and stand apart from the others. There won't be a lot of space so you have to be AMAZING!
How about Inspirational? Like paranormal, these authors have their own following. I do think we are going to see a change here, however. Remember the period of time where everyone wanted to write a story about the Darcies? I think we are going to see these same trends. I do think Amish inspirational projects as well as rancher inspirational projects are going to disappear fast. If you think you are going to write the stories about the "good looking single guy next door needing inspiration" I would skip that one. These are pretty stereotypical. You will have to find a new twist.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. I do think that publishers are desperately trying to find something new to attract readers. They are still in a fierce competition against the vast population of people who would rather sit on their phone and binge watch new TV programs. They are fighting against schools that are not having students read anymore.
So, give us a twist! Give us something new, unique and, more importantly, marketable.
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