Timelines In Publishing and Understanding Trends

So, let's say this last weekend, you were blessed with the chance to get to a bookstore. (Visualize the smell of a real book! Ahhhhhhhh!). As you looked over the shelves, you saw a ton of books in the genre you write. "Woo Hoo" you scream, (and then realizing you actually did scream it and people are staring at you...ignore them for now). Your mind now sees an opportunity. This is clearly the trend. It is time to start dumping that manuscript out to every editor or agent out there. You are in the middle of a trend. 

BUT WAIT!!!!! 

Are you really?

This is where you need to understand the timelines in publishing. When did these books first get to the editors and get on the calendar for release?

What authors forget is that these books you are seeing now, were written easily a year ago. They were contracted months before that. This means that the trend you are looking at right now may be completely full if you try to reach out to the editors and agents. 

Once you are under contract with an editor, that team has already started filling in the calendar way in advance. I promise, it will be frustrating for you when you see that the release date for your book is next year. Really? Why wait that long? Because there were a ton of other authors ahead of you.

Also, remember that publishers have already established, due to budget costs and shelf space, how many books they will release each month/year. Let's say they are going to release 6 new titles (in your genre) each month. That means that only 72 titles will go out. That number is now going to decrease if you have a big name person in front of you who gets priority because they are certainties when it comes to sales. Publishers also know that releasing back to back releases increases sales. In other words, those 72 titles may be sucked up by a limited number of authors. 

So, how do we figure out trends? What about those #MSWL posts? Those are posts by editors and agents who have a very specific thing they are looking for and want to see that fully edited and complete manuscript NOW because they are trying to fill holes. 

But what about you? How do we figure out those trends? I would argue to first look and see what is selling hard core now. That market is probably flooded. So think beyond that. Are you seeing glimmers of something else popping up on the TV or in the movies? That might be a hint.